Commodities Trading: Corn, Soy Beans and Wheat Futures Rebound

By Veselin Valchev,

Commodities TradingCommodities trading outlook: Corn, soy beans and wheat futures were well in bull territory during early trade in Europe today, as investors correct some of the massive slump grains experienced this season.

Weather patterns call for milder weather for the Midwest and Northern Plains this week, which would favor both fieldwork and late-developing crops. The frost of late last week failed to cause any significant damage in the area, keeping outlooks for a record harvest on line. The Southern Plains will see favorable showers and soil moisture.

The US, the world’s top corn and soybeans grower, as well as the top wheat exporter, will see the highest-ever corn and soybeans harvests this year, analysts and government agencies say. Near-perfect weather during the past three months helped crops enough to spark talk of “many piles of corn laying on the ground”, as storage space proves insufficient.

Corn futures for December delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) stood at $3.450 per bushel at 8:21 GMT, up 0.58%. The contract reached a four-year low of $3.356 yesterday, though it closed for a gain of 1.33%. Corn is down some 23% this year.

NASS logged corn crops’ condition remained quite impressive as of September 14th, logging 74% in good or excellent condition, well above the 53% of the same week last year. Also, 27% of corn had matured and harvesting had begun, as investors look to collect the biggest harvest on record of 14.395bn bushels.

Traders will shift focus to robust demand “in coming months,” with corn futures “trending back towards $4,” Christoper Narayanan, the head of agricultural research at Societe Generale, said in a Sept. 12 report cited by Bloomberg.

Soy beans, wheat
Soy beans futures for November were at $9.942 per bushel, up 0.48%. Beans prices have dropped 24% this year, while the November contract reached a four-year low of $9.694 last week.

Meanwhile, December wheat traded at $5.046 per bushel, up 0.80%. The contract dropped 0.35% on Monday to reach a four-year low of $4.960, while wheat prices are down more than 20% this season.

NASS reported 72% of soybeans in good or excellent shape, while spring wheat harvest was 74% complete, lagging behind the 86% 5-year average.

Technical support and resistance levels
According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, December corn future’s central pivot point on the CBOT stands at $3.407. The contract will see its first resistance level at $3.457. If breached, it will advance to $3.485 and then to $3.535 per bushel. The first support points is estimated at $5.379. Should it be broken, wheat will test $3.329 and after that $3.301 per bushel.

November soybeans’ central pivot is at $9.860. The future will have its first resistance at $9.978 and if it broken it will advance first to $10.062 and then to $10.180 per bushel. The first support level is calculated at $9.776. Should the contract breach that, it will probably continue down to $9.658. If both support levels are penetrated corn will test $9.574 per bushel.

December wheat’s central pivot is projected at $5.002. The contract will have the front resistance level at $5.044. If it manages to pass the first level, next resistance is expected at $5.082 and then $5.124 per bushel. Meanwhile, support is expected at $4.964, $4.922 and $4.884 per bushel.

Gary Beal